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About survey
NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters
The NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters aims at collecting macroeconomic forecasts of various groups of professional forecasters. It is directed at analysts of the financial sector, representatives of universities and scientific institutes as well as experts of employee and employer organisations. The survey is conducted on a quarterly basis: in March, June, September and December.
Main survey questions
The main questions of the survey relate to forecasts of CPI inflation and GDP growth for different time horizons. Experts who participate in the survey are asked to consider various scenarios of economic developments and to provide - on the basis of the conducted analysis - the range of possible values and a central point forecast for those variables.
Additional questions
Additional questions relate to the forecasts of the NBP reference rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate, average wage growth, oil prices and GDP growth in the euro area. Except for the first of those variables, additional questions concern point forecasts.
Survey website
The website of the survey is used for both conducting the survey and publishing the results. The principal method of presenting the results is by scatter graphs showing medians and interquantile ranges of individual CPI and GDP forecasts. This makes it possible to assess the degree of the consensus as regards future values of the variables. Additionally, aggregate forecasts are the result of averaging individual probability distributions.
The website provides access to full archives of individual forecasts, which are kept anonymous and are marked with the forecaster's code only. Survey participants have access to time series of their individual forecasts. The website also presents analytical materials concerning the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters.

Survey questionnaire
Analytical materials concerning the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters
version: 2.2.3 Deklaracja dostępności
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